Oklahoma State Draws Dangerous USC Upstate Club in Tuscaloosa Regional Opener
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Oklahoma State enters the NCAA Tournament with the pedigree, the power numbers and the conference résumé expected of a regional No. 2 seed. USC Upstate arrives with momentum, offensive depth, and the confidence of a club that has already proven it can win away from home and compete with nationally ranked opponents.
Friday’s regional opener at Sewell-Thomas Stadium pits a 37-20 Oklahoma State team that finished fifth in the Big 12 against a 33-28 USC Upstate squad that captured the Big South Tournament title for the second consecutive season. On paper, the Cowboys possess the stronger overall profile, but the matchup is dangerous, as they all are this time of year.
The Spartans can hit, attack on offense, and enter the postseason playing their best baseball of the year.
Pitching Matchups and the Likely Game Plan
The biggest question entering the matchup is whether Oklahoma State will keep Ethan Lund in the Friday role, which is where he’s been all year, or try to steal the first game with someone further down staff. Please, do not take this as a slight to SC Upstate, just stating facts here, and that is, they are the #3 seed. So, If you have to pitch someone down staff to win the Regional, do you want them to pitch against a #3 seed, or a #1 seed? That’s a question EVERY coach who has ever existed has had to answer, and no one has come up with a consistently correct one yet.
If OSU goes down staff and loses, and didn’t put their best foot forward before being placed in the losers’ bracket, that’s not something that will sit well with anyone. But, if you can get through Game 1 with all your typical weekend starters reay to go, not only are you in good shape, you also have created margin for error in case you lose the Winners Bracket game.
It’s a gamble, really, either way, and I’ve seen it both work and backfire both ways, so that’s why the coaches get paid the big bucks. I suspect that OSU will pitch Ethan Lund, and I base that on the fact that the game is on Friday, and that’s been his day to pitch all year, and the coaches will value that consistency. And, I think the coaches will pay the full amount of respect to any opponent, because our down staff pitching isn’t in a position not to.
The Cowboys are known for winning games with power more than they are with pitching. I don’t think I’m re-inventing the wheel by saying that. But if Hudson Barrett and Ethan Lund throw well, those two are upper-echelon college starters, and you know what you’re going to get from Stormy, which is anywhere from a gritty to GREAT outing. Then you have Mario and Noah to finish games, so this club definitely has enough pitching to make it through 3 games against high-caliber opponents. The Cowboy pitching staff has posted an overall ERA of 6.23, which is ugly, no doubt, but if you see the pitchers that have contributed the most to that stat, then OSU isn’t winning anyway.
And, part of that has been that Hudson, Mario, and Noah have spent time on the IL, and the rotation is just now shaping into what the coaches hoped it would be coming into the season. OSU has also posted a 1.64 WHIP as a staff and has allowed 370 runs in 57 games. The strikeout numbers have been good, 558 Ks in 486.1 innings, but command issues and overall inconsistencies in the bullpen outside of Mario and Noah are definite concerns.
USC Upstate’s offensive approach is built to stress that type of pitching staff.
The Spartans hit .291 as a team with an .863 OPS, 138 doubles, and 70 home runs. More importantly, they do not rely on one or two hitters. Seven regulars are hitting .290 or better, and six players have at least six home runs. Their lineup is built to put pressure on the opposing pitcher and defense by drawing walks, having a gap-to-gap doubles approach, and situational hitting.
Lund and Barrett have the potential to control the bats of USC Upstate, so logic would have it that they would try to work counts and force the OSU pitchers to put the ball over the plate. Then, once they can get a runner or two on board, stress the defense with a myriad of ways to play situational offense. The Spartans have drawn 313 walks and are comfortable extending at-bats rather than relying solely on home runs.
The challenge for Oklahoma State will be avoiding free passes ahead of the middle of the order.
Henry Zenor leads USC Upstate with a .346 average, while Wylie Waters owns a .960 OPS and 12 home runs. Maloy Heaghney has scored 58 runs and stolen 22 bases, giving the Spartans an aggressive top half capable of creating rallies. Johnny Sweeney’s 12 home runs and .965 OPS give the Spartans the ability to finish innings once the top of their lineup gets it started.
Oklahoma State’s likely approach will be the opposite offensively.
The Cowboys are one of the premier power-hitting teams in college baseball. Their 137 home runs are the second most in the country behind only Georgia, which plays in a pen, as we saw last year in Regionals. OSU has hit nearly double the number of home runs as USC Upstate’s 70, and has slugged .562 as a team and produced 485 runs despite hitting only .280 collectively.
The Cowboys often overwhelm opponents with power, and the ballpark in Tuscaloosa is conducive to that.
Kollin Ritchie is the Aircraft Carrier to the offense entering Regional play, hitting .335 with 29 home runs, a 1.306 OPS, and 73 RBIs. Alex Conover has been equally dangerous, batting .383 with 14 home runs and a .496 on-base percentage. Aidan Meola has added 17 home runs and 69 RBIs, while Brock Thompson scored 64 runs and provided table-setting ability ahead of the middle of the order. Hopefully, he and Meola are healthy enough to continue to provide the same offense they have all year.
Chris Torres is a left-handed pitcher who has been the Friday Night Starter for the Spartans. I’m gonna assume this is who OSU will face, so, if he’s not, sorry, I’m not breaking down every one of their pitchers. He transferred to SC Upstate from Division III Eastern Connecticut and was 2nd team All-Big South. You can bet he’ll flip breaking balls ALL DAY against OSU. Not only is that what the game plan says to do against the Cowboys, but that’s also what he’s good at. He enters with a win over Gardner Webb, but with an ERA of 5.42. His batting average against is .287, and he’s given up 21 home runs in 74.2 IP, so OSU should be able to do some damage against him. Also, he’s walked 30 as well, so if OSU can get some runners on, then go deep, they could control this game.
For USC Upstate, the game plan is straightforward:
Limit free baserunners.
Keep the ball in the park.
Force Oklahoma State to string together hits.
That is easier said than done against a lineup that has homered 137 times.
Oklahoma State’s Offensive Identity
Few teams in the country are as explosive offensively as the Cowboys when they are playing clean baseball.
Oklahoma State has already produced 1075 total bases this season and has multiple hitters capable of changing a game with one swing. The Cowboys are especially dangerous once opponents fall behind in counts because their lineup punishes mistakes elevated in the strike zone.
The middle of the order is among the most explosive, if not the overall best, in the Country.
Ritchie, Conover, and Meola combined for 60 home runs and 178 RBIs, and Campbell Smithwick, Colin Brueggemann, and Garrett Shull have some of the biggest hits and most clutch at-bats of the entire season. In total, OSU has six regulars with at least eight home runs.
The Arizona State series was especially revealing.
Still, there are weaknesses, and sometimes they stick out and are impossible to overcome, no matter who the opponent is.
The Cowboys struck out 629 times as a team. Several key hitters carry high strikeout totals, including Brueggemann (74), Shull (70), Meola (65), and Ritchie (64). When opposing pitching staffs can consistently land secondary pitches for strikes, the Cowboys can become vulnerable to swing-and-miss stretches.
USC Upstate will likely attempt to exploit that with off-speed sequencing and expanded counts.
USC Upstate’s Balanced Attack
While Oklahoma State relies heavily on slugging, although not as much lately, USC Upstate wins through offensive depth and lineup consistency.
The Spartans scored 472 runs and recorded 616 hits, both impressive totals considering the schedule included games against Texas, Tennessee, Clemson, Georgia, and South Carolina.
That experience may matter in Tuscaloosa.
Although USC Upstate lost most of their high-profile P4 games, they had close calls with Texas, Tennessee, and Clemson, then beat Clemson the 2nd time they played them. They also swept Gardner-Webb, who came into Stillwater earlier and took a game, then played another very close game as well, so this is a VERY tough matchup.
The Spartans are especially dangerous because they can score in multiple ways.
They rank well in nearly every offensive category:
.291 batting average
.400 on-base percentage
138 doubles
83 stolen bases
472 runs scored
Jake Armsey and Tyler Lang each posted on-base percentages above .414, while Maloy Heaghney’s 22 stolen bases create another layer of pressure. Henry Zenor’s .511 slugging percentage gives the Spartans a reliable middle-order producer who consistently delivers extra-base hits.
The biggest concern for USC Upstate remains pitching depth.
The Spartans carry a 1.56 WHIP and allowed 82 home runs this season. Against elite power teams, of which OSU definitely is, that profile can become dangerous quickly. Texas scored 38 runs in a three-game sweep earlier this year, and Clemson also found success elevating baseballs against Spartan pitching.
That matters against Oklahoma State more than almost any opponent.
Comparing the Conferences and Résumés
The Big 12 provided Oklahoma State with a significantly more difficult weekly schedule than USC Upstate faced in the Big South.
The Cowboys went 18-12 in conference play against a league that consistently ranked among the nation’s best offensive conferences, while USC Upstate’s 13-11 Big South record does not jump off the page, but context matters.
The Spartans improved substantially late in the year and won the games that mattered most. They captured the Big South Tournament title by defeating High Point and Longwood, then beat Longwood again in a winner-take-all championship game.
So, they carry a lot of momentum into this game with OSU having won 13 of their last 17 games.
Even so, the Cowboys still own the stronger overall résumé.
Key Matchups That Could Decide the Game
Oklahoma State Power vs. USC Upstate Pitching
This is the central matchup of the regional opener.
If Oklahoma State gets into favorable counts and begins elevating baseballs, the Cowboys will break this game pretty quickly. USC Upstate has already surrendered 82 home runs this season, and Oklahoma State’s lineup is uniquely built to exploit that weakness.
USC Upstate Contact vs. Oklahoma State Bullpen Depth
The Spartans do not need to hit five home runs to win.
If they consistently create traffic and force Oklahoma State into long innings, the Cowboys’ bullpen depth could become a factor by the middle innings. USC Upstate’s lineup is disciplined enough to turn walks into multi-run innings. Even if the Cowboys survive, if they have to spend Mario and Noah to do it, that’s NO BUENO!
Momentum and Pressure
Oklahoma State enters with expectations, which can carry pressure. USC Upstate enters with freedom. And, as we know, if the underdog hangs around into the late innings, it puts a mountain of pressure on the team that is supposed to win. And, the Spartans have already proven they can win elimination-style games during the Big South Tournament.
Overall Outlook
Oklahoma State has the higher ceiling, several times over more power, and a stronger résumé. Over the course of a full season, the Cowboys have clearly played against superior competition and produced more nationally relevant wins.
But USC Upstate is not a typical No. 3 seed.
The Spartans are experienced offensively, battle-tested against major-conference opponents, and entering the postseason with significant momentum. Their lineup is capable of creating problems for Oklahoma State’s pitching staff, particularly if the Cowboys struggle with command, and especially if that’s early with Lund or Barrett.
Still, the matchup ultimately favors Oklahoma State because of one overwhelming factor: power.
The Cowboys’ ability to change games instantly with home runs places enormous pressure on opposing pitching staffs, and USC Upstate’s pitching profile suggests that could become the deciding factor.
If Oklahoma State controls the strike zone and limits free baserunners, the Cowboys should win, end of discussion.
If USC Upstate turns the game into a high-contact, high-pressure offensive battle, then gets it into the late innings, and OSU tightens up, the Spartans have enough lineup depth to make this game anywhere from uncomfortable to in the L column.
