Cowboys, Sun Devils Set for Pivotal Big 12 Showdown as Postseason Race Tightens

Oklahoma State enters the weekend with momentum, power at the plate, and an opportunity to strengthen its positioning near the top half of the Big 12 standings, but the Cowboys will face one of the league’s more dangerous offensive clubs in Arizona State for a crucial late-season conference series.

The Cowboys sit at 31-17 overall and 14-10 in Big 12 play, with the regular season entering its closing stretch. Oklahoma State has entered the upper tier of the conference thanks to displaying one of the nation’s most explosive offenses in the last couple of weekends. Arizona State has stayed in the postseason conversation behind a lineup that is very deep and hits a lot of home runs, but can beat a pitcher and a defense in a myriad of ways. They gather a TON of hits and have gaudy-looking batting averages.

Pitching Matchups Could Decide the Series

Cole Carlon, a 6’5 Junior left-hander, has been the Friday Night starter for ASU, and he brings the Sun Devils a lot of experience as the first pitcher to touch the ball. Carlon has 157.2 innings under his belt, and ALL of them have been at Arizona State. He primarily was a reliever last year, and earned All-American honors from the NCBWA, was also All-Big 12 first team, and was named to the Collegiate National Team for USA Baseball. So, he’ll be a tough task for the Cowboys.

The Devils have used several different pitchers in the Saturday role, so beyond Friday will likely be a TBA. 

For Oklahoma State, the formula is relatively clear. The Cowboys need quality innings and more efficiency from Ethan Lund, and the staff needs to limit the free passes they issue, keep the ball IN the yard. and avoid the big inning(s).

The Cowboys have shown swing-and-miss ability, especially from Lund, recording 475 strikeouts in 409.1 innings, but they have also carry a 6.27 team ERA and 1.65 WHIP into the weekend. Although Coach Hawkworth did a GREAT job piecing together last weekend’s map, and everyone chipped in.

The Oklahoma State staff has been effective when pitching ahead in counts and forcing opponents to chase, but the Cowboys have at times struggled to consistently put away disciplined lineups.

That becomes especially important against Arizona State.

The Sun Devils feature one of the most productive offensive cores in the Big 12, led by Landon Hairston, who entered the weekend batting .426 with a 1.469 OPS. Hairston has produced at an elite level across virtually every category, combining average, power, and plate discipline while ranking among the conference leaders in several categories.

Nu’u Contrades has provided another major threat for Arizona State, batting .382 with 14 home runs and 49 RBIs while carrying a .757 slugging percentage. Dominic Smaldino enters this weekend hitting .326 with an OPS of .923, Dean Toigo is hitting .321 with an OPS of 1.075, and Garrett Michel has added another steady bat at .315, Austen Roellig is hitting .304, and Beckett Zavorek is hitting .310, so this lineup is loaded and will be a land mine to navigate for the OSU pitchers. 

Arizona State’s offensive profile differs somewhat from Oklahoma State’s. While the Sun Devils can certainly hit the long ball, they rely more heavily on sustained offensive pressure through consistent contact, while the Cowboys can change games instantly with the long ball.

That contrast could define the weekend.

Oklahoma State’s Offense Remains Among the Nation’s Most Dangerous

The Cowboys continue to produce one of the most powerful offenses in college baseball.

Oklahoma State has hit 111 home runs through 48 games while posting a .553 team slugging percentage and .952 OPS. The Cowboys have scored 406 runs and collected 92 doubles, showcasing both power and extra-base production throughout the lineup. 

Few teams in the Big 12 can match Oklahoma State’s ability to score in bunches.

Alex Conover has emerged as one of the conference’s premier hitters, entering the series batting .379 with a 1.099 OPS. He has collected 64 hits, eight home runs, and 103 total bases while serving as one of the league’s most consistent offensive performers. 

Aidan Meola has become a major run-producing presence, hitting behind Kollin Ritchie, batting .315 with 14 home runs and 57 RBIs.  Brock Thompson has been very good at the top of the order, hitting .313 with nine home runs, 58 runs scored, and a .452 on-base percentage. 

Campbell Smithwick has continued to provide depth and versatility throughout the lineup as well. Smithwick entered the weekend with seven home runs and a .893 OPS while ranking among the conference’s better defensive players. 

But, of course, the OSU offense revolves around Kollin Ritchie, who was an aircraft carrier last weekend against TCU. Against the Frogs, he went 8 for 9 with 2 doubles, 4 home runs, and 6 RBIs. In the opening game of the series on Friday, he had 3 home runs, including the game winning walkoff in the bottom of the 9th. Ritchie is hitting .335 with 26 home runs and an OPS of 1.314. Wow!

The Cowboys are at their best when they generate traffic ahead of their power bats, and last weekend was the perfect example of that. OSU drew 8 walks on Sunday, which helped aid the big 7-run comeback. 

Arizona State’s Lineup Presents a Different Challenge

Even though Oklahoma State possesses more overall home-run power, Arizona State arguably brings the more balanced offensive attacks into the weekend.

The Sun Devils have 12 players hitting above .300, and eight of them have over 100 at-bats. They feature several players near the top of the Big 12 statistical leaderboards, led by Hairston’s .426 average, which ranks among the league’s elite marks. Contrades’ combination of batting average and power makes him one of the conference’s most dangerous all-around hitters as well. 

Arizona State’s ability to extend innings and consistently produce quality at-bats places pressure on opposing pitching staffs to execute for all nine innings. 

That becomes especially significant against an Oklahoma State staff that has occasionally battled command inconsistency and inconsistencies, largely due to revolving injuries. The Cowboys have allowed 240 walks and a .270 opponent batting average this season, but had one of their better weekends last year and have Noah Wech and Hudson Barrett back in the saddle.

If Arizona State can force Oklahoma State pitchers into hitter-friendly counts and avoid chase situations, the Sun Devils have enough lineup depth to create sustained rallies.

However, Arizona State also enters the weekend facing a significant challenge defensively and on the mound.

Defensive and Pitching Comparison

Defensively, the two teams are relatively similar statistically.

Oklahoma State has posted a .976 fielding percentage with 41 errors and 92 double plays turned this season. The Cowboys have generally been solid defensively, particularly in converting double play opportunities in the infield.

Arizona State has several players ranked highly in conference defensive categories. Landon Hairston owns a perfect fielding percentage, while Brody Briggs, Dominic Smaldino, Austen Roellig, and PJ Moutzouridis all rank among the stronger defensive performers statistically within the conference. 

Still, the biggest difference entering the weekend may come on the mound.

Oklahoma State’s staff has certainly been inconsistent at times, but the Cowboys have shown an ability to overpower opponents with strikeout stuff. Their 475 strikeouts rank among the stronger totals in the conference. 

The Sun Devils, meanwhile, will need to prove they can consistently limit Oklahoma State’s power output over an entire series.

Against the Cowboys, mistakes over the plate tend to turn into damage pretty quickly.

Recent Trends and Schedule Outlook

Oklahoma State’s season has featured stretches of elite offensive baseball mixed with periodic inconsistency against top-level pitching. The Cowboys have shown the ability to beat high-end competition, including an 11-1 win over Vanderbilt earlier in the season, while also enduring uneven stretches in conference play. 

The Cowboys’ 14-10 conference mark keeps them firmly in contention entering the final weeks of the regular season, but every remaining series carries postseason implications.

Arizona State has similarly remained in the middle of a tightly packed Big 12 race. The Sun Devils’ offensive consistency has allowed them to stay competitive throughout conference play, though pitching depth and run prevention have periodically created issues against stronger offensive clubs.

Both teams still have critical conference games remaining after this weekend, making the series especially important for Big 12 Tournament seeding and NCAA Tournament positioning.

Keys to the Series

A few factors could ultimately determine who wins the weekend:

• Oklahoma State’s ability to control Arizona State’s top of the order.
• Arizona State’s success in limiting Oklahoma State’s home-run production.
• Which pitching staff avoids free passes and big innings?
• Bullpen execution in late-game situations.

The matchup between Oklahoma State’s power and Arizona State’s offensive depth creates one of the more compelling Big 12 series of the weekend.

If the Cowboys can continue to do damage and get stable starting pitching, they have the offensive ceiling to win the series decisively.

But if Arizona State can consistently pressure Oklahoma State’s pitchers, extend at-bats, and keep games from becoming home-run contests, the Sun Devils have enough lineup balance to create problems throughout the weekend.

With postseason positioning tightening across the conference, every inning this weekend could carry major implications for both programs.