OSU had it’s Big 12 destiny in it’s own hands heading into last weekends game, but, after dropping a disappointing 45-3 decision to UCF, what happens now?

If you’re like me, you probably assumed that, because OSU beat OU and K-State, that, if OSU ends up in a 3 way tie with those 2 schools, they would own the tie breaker.

Well, that’s actually not the case, at least not because of the Head to Head element of it. 

As the Big 12 moved to 14 teams, they created new tie breaking rules, and the one that might surprise you is that, unless ALL 3 teams have ALL played each other, head to head is not a determining factor. So, because OU and K-State have not played each other, the Head to Head matchups between OSU and those 2 schools do NOT factor in.

That is, quite possibly, the dumbest thing I have ever heard of, but it’s true. I mean, even if OU and K-State played, it couldn’t change the fact that OSU would be 2-0 and both OU and K-State would be 1-1 in terms of the head to head records between those 3 schools.

An odd rule in the Big 12 tiebreaker guidelines would nullify a team's head-to-head wins in certain multi-team ties if not all tied teams have played each other. It could work against OSU in certain title game scenarios. I explain it the best I can here: https://t.co/gM9ZvcIp7E

— Scott Wright (@ScottWrightOK) November 12, 2023

So, what will be the determining factor?

Since OU and K-State have not played, this is what the next Tie Breaker would be

“Record against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings.”

And, that’s where all “HELL” breaks loose. 

The 2 common opponents that would be the most likely to be the highest placed would be Iowa State and Kansas. Of course, OSU lost to the Cyclones and beat the Jayhawks, OU is the reverse, and K-State has yet to play each either. 

And, a 3 way tie, or even a 4 way tie, certainly is not limited to just OSU, OU or K-State all being a part of it. So, the next highest placed common opponent has the chance to be a huge factor.

The Cyclone Factor

Iowa State easily has the toughest road remaining, and just 1 loss kicks them out of the group of 2 loss teams. But, if they win out, that would mean they will have beaten Texas, which give the Longhorns 2 losses, and K-State, which would eliminate the Wildcats. And, as long as OSU and OU win out, that would create a 4 way tie of 2 loss teams.

At that point, the next highest ranked common opponent would, almost assuredly, be Kansas.

And, Kansas has beaten both OU and Iowa State, so, in that scenario, OSU and Texas would win the tiebreaker and play for the Big 12 title. 

But, of course, if Texas wins out, they would finish with just 1 loss, and would eliminate the Cyclones. As a result, as long as OSU and OU win out, that would, in the worst case scenario for OSU, make for a 3 way tie with K-State joining OSU and OU.

K-State would win the tie breakers between those 3 schools because of the next tie breaker.

“Win percentage against all common conference opponents (must be common among all teams involved in the tie).”

The 3 common opponents would be ISU, KU, and UCF, and K-State would hold that advantage.

In the best case, Iowa State would lose to Texas, then beat K-State, and that would clinch it for OSU if the Pokes win their last 2 games. That is, unless Texas lost to Texas Tech in the last week of the regular season, which is certainly possible. If that were to happen, it would then come down to Kansas or Iowa State as the next highest common opponent.

If it’s Kansas, OSU is in, if it’s Iowa State, OSU is out.

Go Horns! I THINK?

The easiest path is for K-State and Iowa State to lose another game and for Texas to win out. If that were to happen, OSU and OU would be tied for 2nd place and OSU would have the Head to Head tie breaker because of their Bedlam win.

If Iowa State wins out, that would mean they would have beaten Texas and K-State. At that point, K-State is eliminated and Texas would fall back into a 4 way tie with Iowa State, OSU and OU. Kansas would, almost assuredly, be the next highest ranked “common opponent”, and, as a result, OSU and Texas would advance.

If Iowa State were to beat Texas, then lose to K-State, and K-State beats Kansas, Texas would join OSU, OU and K-State in a 4 way tie as a 2 loss team, 

At that point, the next tie breaker would be the following:

Win percentage against all common conference opponents (must be common among all teams involved in the tie).

The 3 common opponents would be ISU, KU, UCF and OSU is 1-2 against that group, and, thus, OSU would be out.

Making Sense of it All

In a nut shell, OSU needs Kansas to be the next highest placed common opponent, because, although it wouldn’t guarantee the Pokes would win a tie breaker, it’s definitely better than that team being Iowa State.

Or for K-State to lose a game and for Texas to win out.

And…as in any scenario, OU losing would work too!

Got it? Is it Clear as mud now?

Gonna be a crazy! 

Become a subscriber to our O-State Daily YouTube page and follow us on Twitter @OState_Daily, on Instagram @ostatedaily, or on TikTok @ostatedaily

Also, please consider donating to our GoFundMe to help O-State Daily keep growing. To do so, click this link https://gofund.me/db54a295. This site will always be free to its viewers, but it does take time and money to run, so any sized donation would be greatly appreciated.