Cowboys Look to Capitalize on Arizona’s Pitching Woes in Critical Big 12 Series
No. 21 Oklahoma State enters the final regular-season weekend with momentum, offensive firepower, and postseason positioning on the line. Arizona arrives in Stillwater headed in the opposite direction.
The Wildcats are 18-32 overall and 8-19 in Big 12 play, and are in second-to-last place after losing seven of their last nine conference series. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, is 34-18 overall and 16-11 in league play, and has worked its way up to 5th place in the conference with its recent hot stretch.
On paper, the matchup favors the Cowboys in nearly every category. Arizona ranks last in the Big 12 in batting average (.256) and slugging percentage (.396), while Oklahoma State leads the conference with 128 home runs and owns one of the nation’s most dangerous middle-of-the-order combinations. The next closest team in home runs is Arizona State, which the Cowboys just played, and they have 99, so that’s a large gap.
Still, Arizona remains capable of making games uncomfortable because of its contact-heavy lineup and its ability to compete in close contests when starting pitching keeps the game manageable.
Arizona’s Pitching Staff Presents Opportunities for Oklahoma State
The biggest advantage for Oklahoma State may come against an Arizona pitching staff that has struggled to consistently miss barrels.
The Wildcats enter the weekend with a 5.52 ERA, sixth in the Big 12, but the raw numbers reveal deeper problems. Arizona has allowed 503 hits in 449.2 innings, opponents are batting .285 against them, and the Wildcats have surrendered 99 doubles and 41 home runs. Their staff WHIP sits at 1.54.
Being on Thursday, you wouldn’t expect either team to move all their starters up one day, so who each team starts will, almost certainly be a TBA The Friday-night starter for Arizona has been Owen Kramkowski, a 6’3 Junior who has posted an ERA of 5.35. Arizona’s most reliable starter has been Bailey Smith, who owns a 4.67 ERA with 65 strikeouts in 61.2 innings and holds opponents to a .263 average. Smith does have one Friday night start against Arizona State, but has exclusively been the Saturday starter for the Cats. He is one of the few Arizona pitchers capable of neutralizing elite offenses when he establishes his fastball early.
Owen Kramkowski has drawn the Friday assignments and has posted an ERA of 5.35, a WHIP of 1.47, an average against of .311, and he has 73Ks to 14 BBs in 70.2 innings.
Luc Fladda has been solid at times as well despite a 5.03 ERA. The right-hander has walked only seven batters in 68 innings, giving Arizona needed strike-throwing stability. However, opponents are hitting .300 against him, and Oklahoma State’s lineup thrives against pitchers who live in the zone.
The problem for Arizona comes when they have to go “down staff”, or when you “get into their books” if you will.
The bullpen has been volatile, and while closer Garrett Hicks has six saves and a respectable 4.08 ERA, several middle-relief arms have struggled badly with command. And, when OSU draws a lot of walks, they can put up crooked numbers by the bunches.
Arizona has issued 190 walks and hit 46 batters as a staff. When opponents force deep counts and extend innings, games tend to unravel quickly.
That, again, could be dangerous against an Oklahoma State offense built around patience and power.
Oklahoma State’s Offensive Profile Creates a Difficult Matchup
The Cowboys rank 10th in the Big 12 in batting average at .280, but that number is misleading because of how explosive the lineup is from top to bottom.
Oklahoma State leads the Big 12 with 128 home runs and has the 2nd best slugging percentage in the league at .564, which is just 1 point behind Arizona State. Damn Smaldino…LOL! The Cowboys have scored 447 runs, nearly 200 more than Arizona.
The middle of the lineup is particularly dangerous.
Kollin Ritchie has emerged as one of the premier hitters in the conference, batting .340 with 28 home runs and 72 RBIs. His 1.322 OPS ranks second in the Conference behind only Landon Hairston of Arizona State, and Arizona’s right-handed-heavy pitching staff will have to navigate around him carefully.
Alex Conover has been equally important in setting the tone offensively. The Cowboy leadoff catalyst is hitting .395, second-best in the conference, with a .509 on-base percentage. His ability to reach base consistently creates constant RBI opportunities for Ritchie, Aidan Meola, and Brock Thompson.
Meola has added 16 home runs and 62 RBIs while hitting .316, while Thompson provides another difficult matchup with a .310 average, 17 doubles, and 10 homers.
Even Oklahoma State’s lower-average hitters are dangerous because they have power. Garrett Shull is batting just .191 but already has 13 home runs and an .838 OPS.
Arizona’s likely game plan will center around limiting free passes and keeping the ball in the yard. If the Wildcats fall behind in counts consistently, the series could become difficult to manage quickly.
Arizona’s Offense Relies More on Contact Than Power
While Oklahoma State wins with slugging, Arizona’s lineup is more dependent on stringing together quality at-bats.
Tony Lira and Beau Sylvester, a former OSU Cowboy, are the engines offensively. Lira is hitting .341 with 17 doubles and a .928 OPS, while Sylvester ranks among the conference leaders at .345.
Nate Novitske has added stability with a .312 average, and Carson McEntire provides some power with nine home runs despite batting only .230.
The larger issue for Arizona is a lack of depth and run production.
The Wildcats have hit only 43 home runs all season, which is 85 fewer than Oklahoma State, and their .340 is dead last in the Conference. Arizona also has 462 strikeouts offensively while producing just 257 runs in 50 games.
Too often, innings stall before the big hit arrives.
The Wildcats have also struggled significantly against upper-tier pitching staffs. Conference series losses to Kansas, Houston, BYU, Kansas State, and UCF exposed the lineup’s inability to consistently create crooked numbers against quality arms.
That becomes especially concerning against an Oklahoma State staff that, while imperfect, has swing-and-miss stuff throughout the rotation. Especially with Lund.
Oklahoma State’s Pitching Remains the Biggest Variable
If there is one area where Arizona could find a path into the series, it is Oklahoma State’s pitching inconsistency.
The Cowboys own a 6.34 team ERA, 12th in the Big 12, despite ranking near the top of the conference standings. They have allowed 71 home runs and issued 259 walks.
However, Oklahoma State’s staff is built differently from Arizona’s.
The Cowboys miss bats at an elite level, recording 504 strikeouts compared to Arizona’s 464. Ethan Lund ranks 2nd in the Conference behind just Cole Carlon with 106 punchouts in 64 innings while holding opponents to a .231 average.
Stormy Rhodes has done a very good job slipping into the Saturday role, and Mario Pesca and Noah Wech have stabilized bullpen roles late in games, with Wech recording six saves.
The challenge for Oklahoma State has been avoiding big innings. Walks and command lapses have frequently turned manageable situations into crooked numbers for opponents.
Arizona’s contact-heavy lineup could test that weakness if the Wildcats force long at-bats and capitalize on traffic.
Defensive Comparison Favors Oklahoma State Slightly
Both teams have been solid defensively, but Oklahoma State has been cleaner overall.
The Cowboys rank second in the Big 12 with a .977 fielding percentage and have turned 43 double plays. Arizona sits sixth at .975 with only 25 double plays turned all season.
That difference matters.
Oklahoma State has consistently bailed itself out with the twin killings, while Arizona has struggled to erase mistakes once runners have gotten on base.
Tony Lira has been outstanding defensively for Arizona with a .993 fielding percentage, while Beau Sylvester has also been reliable behind the plate. But the Wildcats have several infielders with lower efficiency numbers, including Nate Novitske (.944) and Cash Brennan (.910).
For Oklahoma State, Campbell Smithwick and Colin Brueggemann have anchored a strong defensive unit, while the Cowboys’ overall athleticism has improved dramatically since the beginning of conference play. And now they have Avery Ortiz back in the fold, and we’re assuming Brock Thompson will be available this weekend.
Trends Suggest Oklahoma State Has Timing Advantage
Arizona opened the year against an extremely difficult nonconference schedule that included Oregon State, Stanford, Vanderbilt, Oregon, and UConn. The Wildcats showed flashes early, including wins over Vanderbilt, UC Irvine, Arizona State, and TCU.
But the grind of conference play exposed roster depth concerns.
Arizona has won only eight conference games and has struggled badly away from Tucson, posting a 4-11 road record. The Wildcats have also lost multiple close games late, including extra-inning defeats to Houston, UCF, and Kansas.
Oklahoma State has not always played clean baseball, but the Cowboys continue to win series because their offense can erase deficits quickly.
That offensive ceiling may ultimately define the weekend.
Key Matchups to Watch
If Oklahoma State gets into Arizona’s bullpen by the middle innings, the matchup tilts heavily toward the Cowboys.
Arizona does not have overwhelming power, so the Wildcats must create pressure with singles, doubles, and situational hitting. Oklahoma State’s ability to generate strikeouts could neutralize that approach.
Alex Conover’s ability to reach base changes everything for Oklahoma State. Arizona’s pitching staff cannot afford free baserunners ahead of Ritchie and Meola.
Series History and Outlook
Historically, Oklahoma State has held the edge in the all-time series, though Arizona has traditionally been one of the nation’s more respected programs. The Cats won 2 of 3 from OSU at the end of last year, and we all remember them coming back and beating OSU in the 2016 College World Series. This season, however, the teams are heading in different directions.
The Cowboys are fighting for postseason positioning and possibly hosting rights. And, yes, I just went there! It’s not OUT of the question! Arizona is trying to salvage momentum before the Big 12 Tournament.
For Oklahoma State, the formula is clear:
Work deep counts
Force Arizona into bullpen innings
Let the power bats dictate games
For Arizona, the path is narrower:
Get quality starts
Avoid free passes
Keep games low scoring
If the series turns into an offensive shootout, the numbers overwhelmingly favor Oklahoma State.
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